A year ago, we published an article under the tongue-in-cheek title of “That’s Alright, It Was Only Money.” We wanted to update our understanding of historical performance results for traditional investment portfolios after the disastrous conclusion of the year 2022. We used the S&P 500 Index as the benchmark for stocks and Barclay’s Aggregate Bond Index as the benchmark for fixed income. In 2022, the former ended the year with a return of minus 13.01%, and the latter ended the year with a return of minus 19.44%. That meant our prototypical investment portfolio, invested 50% in stocks and 50% in bonds, saw a blended investment return of minus 16.23%. At the time, we pointed out that the aggregate performance for 2022 was actually worse than the aggregate performance for the Great Recession year 2008, which was “only” minus 15.88%.

And now, after another year in the books, but with quite different results in 2023, we ask the question, “Are we back to normal?” It’s probably a rhetorical question, and it begs a more specific question: “What is normal, anyway?” The S&P 500 return in 2023 was 24.23%, and the Barclays Aggregate Bond Index return was 5.53%, resulting in a blended return of 14.88%. It was a great year for investment portfolios holding traditional asset classes! The improved numbers should make everyone feel a little better off. Does it give us greater confidence to make the argument that over many years, a prudent investor strategy results in positive returns? Let’s take a look at the actual numbers.

We’ve been saying for years that, when it comes to investments, charities should focus on the long-term picture. There are good years in the markets and bad years in the markets, but, with “prudent” investments, the long-term outcomes have been consistently positive. Whether it be the endowment assets of well-established organizations, or the investment portfolios of gift annuity programs and individual charitable remainder trusts, the general rule is to look at the bigger picture. But specific and dramatic swings in the investment markets – the stock market in particular – can have a chilling effect on donors with stock portfolios held over an extended period of time.

What do we say to the donors who have seen their investments lose significant value over the past 12 months or longer? And even within the organization, how do we respond to the more cautious voices among us who are spooked by double-digit declines in market values? We thought it would be helpful to take a look at the most recent investment performance measurements of mainstream investments.

As Charles Dickens wrote in his A Tale of Two Cities: “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness.” Those words were written in 1859, but they could have been written yesterday.

How do we even begin to describe the year that was 2020? It was a year of so many extremes – a once-in-a-century pandemic, the most widely contested elections in U.S. history, unprecedented economic collapse, historic unemployment, tsunamis of misinformation and disinformation, and truly unimaginable levels of mistrust, suffering, and despair in the souls of people everywhere.